Banner night in Philadelphia usually brings noise, nerves, and a few busted coverages. This year, it also brings a rivalry game. The Eagles and Cowboys kick off the 2025 season with a matchup that looks built for points, not punts. Here are my NFL Week 1 picks and score calls, starting with a Thursday showcase that could swing the NFC East race before the weekend even starts.
Eagles–Cowboys: Why the opener leans Philly
The case for Philadelphia starts on the ground. The Eagles leaned on a bruising run game last year, rolling up 179.3 rushing yards per game, and they didn’t hide their intent this offseason. Saquon Barkley changes speed, leverage, and how defenses align. Pair that with a QB-run menu that forces an extra defender into the box, and Dallas’ front will be in conflict all night.
Dallas’ defense can hunt the passer, but stopping a downhill run game has been their soft spot in big moments. Early in the season, gap fits and tackling angles usually lag behind. That’s an edge for Philadelphia’s offense, which can stay on schedule, keep third downs short, and control tempo.
The flip side: Dak Prescott knows this opponent cold. He’s 4-1 in his last five starts against Philadelphia, and he tends to shred zone windows when his first read is clean. With CeeDee Lamb commanding double teams and George Pickens adding vertical teeth on the outside, Dallas can punish any hesitation in a retooled Eagles secondary that remains the roster’s biggest unknown.
That secondary is the swing factor. Philadelphia changed pieces in the back end, and timing on switches and banjo calls takes reps. Expect Dallas to test it with stacked releases, bunch looks, and quick motion, trying to force communication errors. If Philly’s pass rush gets home, the corners get help. If it doesn’t, Lamb and Pickens can flip the game in a few snaps.
Red-zone execution will separate these teams. The Eagles are built for short-yardage bully ball; they don’t need style points from the five-yard line. Dallas needs touchdowns, not field goals, to keep pace on the road. Watch third-and-medium: if the Cowboys live there, Prescott will move the chains. If they live in third-and-long, the Eagles’ rush takes over.
Then there’s the stage. Banner ceremonies pile on adrenaline and distractions. That can cut both ways—hosts can press, visitors can ride the juice. But long, physical drives tend to settle nerves. Advantage Philadelphia’s script: run-first, play-action second, with deep shots sprinkled in once the safeties start cheating downhill.
Special teams usually swing one possession in openers. Field position matters if wind picks up and rust shows. A single short field can be the difference between a one-score sweat and a double-digit cushion.
The pick: Eagles 34, Cowboys 24. Philadelphia’s run game and short-yardage edge carry the night, even as Prescott lands a few haymakers. Dallas has upset potential if it hits explosives early and forces the Eagles to throw 35-plus times. If not, the home team walks off with a banner and a win.
Week 1 picks and score calls
Openers are messy. Penalties spike, tackling is uneven, and timing on option routes is a beat late. That’s why coaching, continuity, and field position matter more in Week 1 than they will in November. With that in mind, here are the score calls across the slate and a quick reason for each.
- Eagles 34, Cowboys 24 — Philly’s ground game controls pace; red-zone power wins out despite Dallas’ explosive threats.
- Buccaneers 27, Falcons 24 — A late field goal decides a back-and-forth NFC South scrap; Tampa’s defensive front closes the door.
- Bengals 20, Browns 17 — A defensive slog solved by efficient two-minute offense; Joe Burrow’s precision on the final drive is the edge.
- Colts 19, Dolphins 16 — Field goals over fireworks. Indy’s run fits travel, and a late takeaway flips the game.
- Patriots 23, Raiders 16 — Low-scoring and physical. New England’s special teams steal hidden yards and a possession.
- Cardinals 31, Saints 13 — Speed in space. Arizona’s tempo stresses New Orleans’ linebackers, and explosives follow.
- Steelers 24, Jets 13 — Pass rush dictates terms. Pittsburgh’s pressure forces short fields and a couple of turnovers.
- Commanders 26, Giants 23 — Washington’s front wins the trenches late; a kneel-down after a clock-draining drive seals it.
- Jaguars 27, Panthers 20 — Jacksonville’s balance and scripted openers produce an early lead they never surrender.
- Broncos 30, Titans 10 — Denver leans on defense and a couple of shot plays off play-action; Tennessee can’t keep pace.
- 49ers 24, Seahawks 16 — San Francisco’s run fits and YAC game control the middle eight minutes around halftime.
- Bears 22, Vikings 19 — A grinder decided by situational football; Chicago’s red-zone stand in the fourth is the difference.
- Lions 23, Packers 20 — The upset. Detroit’s fourth-quarter surge and a takeaway in plus territory flip Lambeau’s script.
What pushes these calls beyond “talent vs. talent” are the little things that bite teams in Week 1. New play-callers getting their mechanics down. Centers and quarterbacks nailing protection IDs against exotic third-down looks. Young corners seeing NFL tempo for the first time. Even substitution patterns can swing a drive in September.
Travel and timing matter too. Short weeks favor continuity. Teams with veteran offensive lines handle cadence, silent counts, and crowd noise better. On the flip side, fast, deep defensive lines feast early in the season when conditioning gaps show up in the second half.
Keep an eye on early-down pass rate league-wide. The best offenses stay ahead of schedule by throwing to set up the run, then closing games on the ground. That blend matters in openers when defenses are still installing pressure packages and tackling form isn’t sharp.
One more Week 1 trend: special teams volatility. Return units pop one when coverage lanes aren’t disciplined. A muffed punt, a blocked kick, or a kickoff out of bounds hands away points. The teams that win the hidden yardage battle don’t need perfect offense to steal a road win.
Back to Thursday night. If Dallas creates explosives early, it can tilt Philly out of its comfort zone and drag the game into a shootout on Dallas’ terms. If the Eagles set the line of scrimmage, they can squeeze possessions and force the Cowboys to play almost perfectly. That’s the Week 1 knife-edge—cleaner operation usually beats sheer talent this early.
So yes, the opener is a litmus test. The Eagles want to show they can defend a title with muscle and poise. The Cowboys want to show their recalibrated offense can hang against a contender on the road. The rest of the slate? It’s the annual reminder that September football is a different sport. Adjust quickly, survive the chaos, and don’t blink on special teams.
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